Photo: courtesy of Costa Rica Institute of Tourism

The global tourism market is expected to reach $637 billion this summer, an increase of 50 per cent, according to forecasts by ITB Berlin and Statista. The study says long-term changes in travel behavior due to Covid will not affect decision-making and destination choices, whilst the war in Ukraine is unlikely to severely impact the travel industry.

The ITB Berlin and Statista study, Statista’s Mobility Market Outlook (MMO), forecasts that the global travel industry will grow by a projected 48 per cent, reaching $637 billion in 2022. In 2023 it will overtake pre-pandemic levels by around five per cent, reaching almost $756 billion. In 2022, the highest growth rate is forecasted for the cruise industry (180 per cent year-on-year) and the hotel trade (57 per cent). The hotel trade represents the largest tourism market segment and will likely exceed private accommodation and holiday apartments as well as package tours. At the same time, the MMO predicts that the market for private accommodation and holiday apartments will exceed $81 billion in total turnover, only two per cent short of the market volume in 2019.

War in Ukraine unlikely to severely impact the travel industry

As these forecasts do not take the impact of the war in Ukraine into account, the question is whether it will affect the global travel and tourism industry in the long term – and if so, in what ways? According to an analysis by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), apart from the coronavirus pandemic, the events with the biggest long-term impact on global civil aviation were the combination of the dotcom bubble bursting in 2000 and the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. In 2001 and 2002, global air passenger numbers declined year-on-year by one per cent, briefly interrupting the growth trend in air travel, before returning to and exceeding pre-crisis levels in 2004. According to data received from the UNWTO, in 2019 Russia and Ukraine, the two countries currently at war, accounted for three per cent of global tourism spending on international travel. Assuming the war does not spread to other regions, it is unlikely that it will severely impact the global travel industry. However, it is possible the crisis could have a bigger impact on individual markets.

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Read more: https://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news/article/summer-2022-promises-good-business-for-the-tourism-industry/

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